El Niño Forecasted for Record Level Intensity

El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast on Sept. 10.

NOAA forecasters revealed a 75% chance that the building Super El Niño will be the strongest such event on record, dating back to 1950. Weather models predict that El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year.

With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed, NOAA cautioned.

Meanwhile, no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Ocean 103 days into the season, which marks a new record caused by the El Niño weather pattern, CNN reported. Sept. 11 was the latest date for the first hurricanes of the season to form since satellites began tracking in 1966. Additionally, forecasters aren’t predicting a hurricane in the Atlantic for the foreseeable future.

Looking forward, just over 50% of the entire season’s activity typically occurs after Sept.10, but El Niño will likely stifle the Atlantic’s final stretch this year. Last year, the U.S. managed to avoid a hurricane landfall, and if the country manages to repeat that pattern, it would be the first time this pattern occurred since 2009 and 2010.

However, it does take a hurricane-strength system to cause significant impacts. Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Edouard on Sept. 1 resulted in dangerous flash flooding and water rescues in eastern Texas. Edouard was 14 mph shy of hurricane strength and caused rainfall totals that topped 20 inches in some areas north of Beaumont.