Worker Turnover Could Increase Through Early 2025

The Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index held steady for the third quarter of 2024, decreasing by less than half a point to 104.7 from 105.1 from the previous quarter. While employee attrition rates have been falling this year, the index signaled that more workers could leave their jobs through early 2025 after several quarters of declining attrition.

Notably, in the third quarter of 2024, the index found employee confidence in their organization’s culture and compensation remain strong and hit peaks the last quarter. Employee optimism related to compensation continued to climb, up 1.7 points, while employees’ confidence in their organization and leadership held steady at 104.4. Worker attitudes regarding their workplace culture declined by 2.3 points while optimism around workers’ near-term outlook for the job market saw the largest decline, unraveling gains from the last quarter.

Looking at various demographics, the index found workers who are most likely to stay in their jobs are millennial (113.8), male (110), and baby boomer (106.2) employees. On the flip side, Gen Z (88.3) and female (97.6) employees are more likely to leave.

The index’s findings largely align with new jobs data. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for August found that employers backed off in hiring, and more workers are staying in their jobs. JOLTS reported that the number of employees voluntarily quitting their jobs fell to 3.08 million, the lowest level since September 2020. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that employers added 254,000 jobs in September, far more than projected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked lower, down to 4.1% from 4.2% the month prior. The agency also reported that worker wages increased 0.4% for the month, rising to four percent year over year.