NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Last week, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service predicted another below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. As CMM previously reported, in April hurricane researchers at Colorado State University predicted a slightly quieter hurricane season as well.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting eight to14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. 

The Atlantic season is expected to be below normal due to competing factors. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns. The outlook is not a landfall forecast. 

“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm,” Graham said.

Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information.