Tropical Storm Francine Causes Possible Hurricane Threat, Year’s Storm Forecast Changes

Life-threatening surge and damaging winds from Tropical Storm Francine could impact the Gulf Coast beginning tonight. Francine formed in the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and The Weather Channel forecasts it could strengthen into a category 1 hurricane by Wednesday as it tracks toward the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. Flash flooding will be a major concern as heavy rain impacts already saturated areas.

Francine is the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first since Ernesto dissipated on Aug. 20. The system is one of three the hurricane center is watching, USA Today reported. The second is in the central tropical Atlantic and is given a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm. Another storm is farther to the east has a 60% chance of development during the next week.

If Francine does form into a hurricane, the season still has been quieter than expected by forecasters. Despite ideal conditions that fueled preseason predictions of upward of 20 named storms, none have formed in the Atlantic since Ernesto in mid-August—a streak unmatched in 56 years, CNN reported. More than 40% of all tropical activity in a normal season occurs after Sept. 10, so experts still predict plenty of storms are ahead this year.

Still, Colorado State University weather forecasters reduced its predicted number of named storms to 23 from 25, but maintained all other numbers, including that a dozen storms will turn into hurricanes before Nov. 30.