2024 Hurricane Forecast Update Predicts More Storms

This week, Colorado State University (CSU) weather forecasters predicted an increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes expected in 2024. CSU meteorologists expect 25 named storms, and of those storms, a dozen will be hurricanes before Nov. 30. Six of those hurricanes are expected to be major or Category 3, meaning the hurricanes will have winds greater than 111 miles per hour. This updated forecast includes the first three named storms from June and earlier this month, including Hurricane Beryl.

In the CSU April forecast, the team predicted five major hurricanes out of 11 from 23 named storms, as CMM previously reported.

CSU emphasized it is predicting an extremely active hurricane season as sea surface temperatures remain near record-warm levels. “Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” the report said. Additionally, the CSU team anticipates reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear, which would help to cool the temperatures.

“Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season,” the report said. “We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”

The CSU forecast is well above the 30-year average for both hurricanes and storms, and pointedly above the 20 storms, seven hurricanes, and three Category 3-plus hurricanes last year, The Weather Channel reported. This year, Hurricane Beryl has already broken records for being earlier than normal, and Chris, a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, became the third named storm ahead of schedule. The average third tropical storm typically develops on Aug. 3, and the first hurricane historically forms on Aug. 11, The Weather Channel reported.